Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, December 7, 2019
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist on mid and upper elevation northwest through north through easterly facing aspects. Large and deadly human triggered avalanches 2-3' are possible and are likely to be triggered from a distance or well above you. A MODERATE danger exists for fresh wind drifts in lee terrain.
Safe and excellent riding conditions can be found on low angle terrain on the sun and wind sheltered slopes.
Safe travel protocol is key: one at a time, carry and know how to use rescue gear, have a plan if things go wrong.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear.
Temperatures continue to warm and are in the mid to upper 20s with some mid-elevation stations in the mid-30s.
Southerly winds picked up in the early evening and continue to blow 25mph with gusts to 40. The most exposed weather stations have hourly averages in the 30-40mph range with gusts to near 60.
Skiing and riding conditions remain excellent in the sun and wind sheltered terrain with 3-4' total snow depths along the upper reaches of the Cottonwoods and 2-3' along the Park City ridgeline.

Clouds will increase today and we should start to see some light snowfall overnight with storm totals through early Monday pegged at 5-10". Mountain temps will be in the upper 20s and near 30°F today with moderate south/southwest winds. Clearing expected Monday eve through Wednesday with generally unsettled weather the latter part of the work week.
Visit the Week in Review for a summary of the weather and avalanche activity from the past week.
Recent Avalanches
Ski area control teams in the upper Cottonwoods continue to trigger avalanches into the old October snow in high northerly through easterly terrain. Some of these are repeater avalanches; that is, they previously avalanched, filled back in with additional snow and wind drifted snow, and are running again. This indicates that many of the avalanches from the Thanksgiving cycle did not clear out the old weak snow and may be primed to run again. This is not good and, truth be told, not all that unusual, as we tiptoed around repeaters last early winter as well. Video courtesy of Alta ski patrol and Trent Meisenheimer.
In the backcountry, separate observations by Bo Torrey (UAC) and Tim Rogers (UDOT) noted two new avalanches of unknown provenance below Sunset Peak in upper BCC 2-3' deep and 50-100' wide. These were in northerly terrain at roughly 10,200'. The trigger mechanism was unknown though they were potentially remotely triggered by other parties traveling near the area. (photos below: Bo Torrey through a monocular).
Collapsing of the Thanksgiving slab into the old snow still noted yesterday from the PC ridgline to Twin Lakes Pass to the Brighton periphery.
You can view all reported avalanche activity HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are still reeling from last week's Thanksgiving massacre. The 2-4'+ storm easily overwhelmed the old October snow and many slopes still sit uncomfortably in the balance waiting for a trigger. Human triggered avalanches continue to run on this layering nearly every day and collapsing of this strong over weak structure remains the rule rather than the exception. Getting caught in one of these 2-3' deep avalanches would almost certainly lead to significant injury or death.
There may be a bit of luck here in play, though, and not in a good way. One may be able to ride 4 slopes before triggering an avalanche that brings the walls down on your 5th run. It's a bit of Russian Roulette. If the game is rigged, however, you can choose not to play: choose terrain that does not harbor old season snow OR stay on low angle terrain with nothing steeper above. Luck is a poor risk management strategy.
One last point - as Greg mentioned yesterday: previous tracks on the slope gives ZERO indication of stability.
The video below (link) further illustrates our primary avalanche problem.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Owing to the bump in wind speeds, the southerlies will easily drift Thursday's few inches into shallow but sensitive wind drifts along the mid and upper elevations and predominantly on west to north to easterly facing terrain. These shallow drifts may be surprisingly sensitive and may be triggered at a distance. Look for and avoid smooth and rounded wind drifts to lee of ridgelines, around rocky outcrops, or cross-loaded beyond sub-ridges. Shooting cracks are classic signs of instability.
Additional Information
With sun and warming, shallow wet push-alanches and rollerballs are likely on steep sunny slopes.
Take some time to refresh your Companion Rescue Skills. This includes (1) beacon practice, (2) probing, and (3) strategic shoveling. I encourage others to spend time practicing these skills. Need to learn these skills or take a refresher, consider signing up for a companion rescue course!