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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Monday morning, January 22, 2024
The overall avalanche danger on the Skyline is rated at CONSIDERABLE.
Human triggered avalanches are still a serious concern.
The most likely places to trigger an avalanche are on very steep mid and upper elevation slopes that face west, north or east.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: 1 to 2 inches of dense snow fell over the last 24 hours. The rain/snow line was somewhere between 7000' and 8000'. The wind has been remarkably calm. Temperatures have been steady in the mid to upper 20s.
Mountain Weather: My colleague Drew describes this week's weather as "Purgatory". It's going to basically be cloudy through the week with a few snowflakes falling now and then, temperatures in the mid 20s and light to moderate wind speeds mostly from the south and west. Today looks like the best chance for any patches of sun to peek through although that may be wishful thinking.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak loose sugary snow at the base of the snowpack can still cause avalanches. This will be a continued concern until it gets buried deeper and gains more strength. The problem is most prevalent on the mid and upper elevation west, north and east facing slopes. My hunch is that slopes need to be very steep at this point to avalanche. They probably need to be steeper than 35 degrees. That said, the number we shoot for as far as safe slope steepness is 30 degrees. Keep your slope angles under 30 degrees and you'll be safe.
I'll be hunting around in some of the more shallow locations along the Skyline this week to see how things are progressing. I'll also be taking a look at lower elevations as well as southerly facing slopes to monitor the stability there. More info soon, stay tuned.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.