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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, February 18, 2022
There is a "pockety" MODERATE avalanche danger on the Skyline. Small human triggered avalanches involving the new snow are possible in isolated locations. These won't pose much threat unless you are on very steep radical terrain with consequences below like rocks, cliffs or trees that you could get pushed into.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Wednesday's storm snow greatly improved the riding conditions. The very low density snow quickly consolidated quite a bit. Even though temperatures stayed cold (<20˚F) during the day, sunny slopes became damp. You'll find a crust on east, south and southwest facing slopes.
Mountain Weather
We have a couple of nice sunny days ahead with temperatures into the mid 20s today and a bit warmer Saturday. There are a few more storm systems that will move through starting Monday. These look like they want to split again and move through to our south. As of now it looks like we won't see all that much snow from them.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow was pretty well behaved on Thursday. There were two things I noted.
  1. The new low density snow was prone to sluffing on very steep slopes. Now that it's had some more time to settle I doubt that we'll see much of that today.
  2. I did find one location where I was able to get a slope to crack out from a distance. It was on an east facing slope that had very loose facets that were on the surface prior to the storm. The slope had about 8 or 10" of new snow that had become just damp enough to form a cohesive slab over the weak facets. I'm not all that concerned about this situation in the short term but it could be a hint at things to come with additional storms.
Overall, we are still dealing with fairly stable conditions. There may be some pockets scattered around where a person could get the new snow to crack out. They shouldn't pose much threat unless you are above exposed terrain.
Backcountry observations:
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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