The Valentines storm is settling and gaining strength, as a matter of fact, getting around is seamless because the snow will feel solid under our skis, board, or sled... and that's good news. But it's a double edge sword and we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on. And we need to remember most of our winter snowpack is resting on an early season persistent weak layer (PWL) or weak, sugary facets about a foot above the ground.... think strong snow on weak snow. The PWL exists on most slopes except those facing due south and southwest.

The probability of triggering a deep dangerous avalanche is generally low, but the consequences are high because the entire seasons snowpack will crash down on top of you if you have misjudged the snowpacks stability. Now, you wouldn't go to Vegas and bet against the house with those odds right? Personally, I don't entirely trust anything in the snowpack I can't manage, so I'm going to continue avoiding terrain that harbors questionable snowpack structure. Of course the usual suspects come to mind... steep, rocky, upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass is bulls-eye terrain and should be considered suspect. With all the great coverage across the range and so many other riding options, there's no reason to roll the dice or pull on the dogs tail.

Yesterday's southerly winds cranked in the high country, forming wind drifts on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Recent drifts may have settled and gained strength overnight, but any fresh drift can react to our additional weight and has the potential to break deeper and wider than you might expect. Today, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds or feels hollow like a drum.