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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, March 13, 2024
The overall avalanche danger rating for the Skyline is MODERATE.
Small human triggered avalanches are possible involving the new snow.
Honestly, I don't expect conditions to be very dangerous but watch for any cracking within the new snow which indicates unstable conditions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The Skyline has picked up about 6 inches of new snow overnight. It looks like the Fairview area hasn't done quite as well. Wind has been light to moderate in speed from the northwest. Temperatures are in the low 20s.
Mountain Weather: Expect periods of snow through today with a few more inches of accumulation. Temperatures won't climb much out of the low 20s. Wind will stay light to moderate from the northwest.
This storm system is going to get squirrelly. It's going to drift south and park itself over western Arizona. This is going to produce an east flow for our region through the weekend. Weather models indicate more moisture for our area through Saturday. I am very skeptical about how this pattern is going to shake out since it is quite out of the ordinary. Let's just say my weather forecasting confidence is low in respect to how much snow to expect. We'll just take it day by day.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
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I don't think the new snow will increase the avalanche danger all that much. All indicators tell me it should be well behaved.
That said, you'll want to do your homework and check to see if the new snow is unstable:
  • Look for any fresh natural avalanches.
  • Watch for cracking within the new snow.
  • Hit small steep test slopes to try and get the new snow to fail.
If you find any fresh avalanches or see cracking, it's wise to stay off of the bigger steep slopes.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.