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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 4, 2024
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE on the Manti Skyline.
Shallow fresh wind drifts can be triggered today especially in higher terrain.
Triggering a deeper avalanche breaking into weak snow from December remains a possibility.
The likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche is not all that great but the consequences if you do could be severe.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Light snowfall continued on and off all day on Saturday and did add another 1 to 2 inches. This brings totals since Thursday up to 9 inches. The new snow is dense. I measured it at 10% density. It was a little breezier Saturday than I anticipated. Not super strong wind but it was blowing and drifting snow mainly from the west. It has slowed down overnight. Riding conditions are pretty good especially out of wind affected terrain.
Mountain Weather: We'll have a mostly clear day today but clouds move back in later on. High temperatures should get into the mid 20s and wind will slow and shift around and be from the south. A series of storms will move through this week. None of them look huge but it looks like they will keep the snow accumulating. The first one is Monday night which should bring a few inches. The next is Wednesday which looks a bit better.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Sensitive small wind drifts is the most likely avalanche problem you'll encounter today. Steep upper elevation slopes where the wind has formed fresh drifts are the most likely places to trigger something. These avalanches won't be very large but might be enough to "boss you around" and cause injury. Avoid pillows, drifts and areas of "thick" feeling snow on steep slopes and you'll avoid trouble. Don't monkey around underneath cornices.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persisitent Weak Layer in the snowpack is not nearly as unstable as it was in January but it's not green light conditions either. There is still a distinct chance that a person could trigger an avalanche 2 to 3 feet deep. The most likely places to trigger a deep avalanche are where the snowpack is shallower and/or in rocky terrain. Steep northeast facing slopes are also more suspect than other aspects. If you experience collapsing (whumpfing) of the snowpack or shooting cracks, these are big red flags telling you to avoid steep terrain.
As we slowly add more snow to the snowpack, this will help stabilize the deep weak layers of snow. It is possible that this Persistent Weak Layer problem will fade away and won't be a concern any more but I'm definitely not satisfied that it's completely stable yet.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.