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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Thursday morning, February 13, 2020
Today the avalanche danger is LOW and avalanche conditions are generally safe. However, riding in extreme terrain can make the consequences of even very small avalanches deadly.
Low danger does not mean no danger.
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Discounted lift tickets - Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, all proceeds from these ticket sales go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets here.
TONIGHT 7:00 - 8:30 p.m. - State of the Snowpack a Discussion of the Recent Historic Avalanche and Weather Event in Little Cottonwood Canyon” with UAC Forecaster Trent Meisenheimer, UDOT Forecaster Mark Saurer, and Mike Wessler University of Utah PHD Candidate in Atmospheric Science. Black Diamond Store, 2092 E 3900 South, Salt Lake City.
Weather and Snow
This morning, it's cold with temperatures in the single digits and low teens F. Westerly ridgetop winds are averaging 10-15 mph gusting about 25 mph. Stronger winds blew very early yesterday morning before becoming very light yesterday and then increasing a bit last night. Yesterday upper Little Cottonwood Canyon got an inch of new snow while other places were dusted.
Today will be a beautiful one to be in the mountains. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures should warm into the high 20s and low 30s F. Ridgetop winds should continue 10-15 mph gusting up to 25 mph.
Looking forward, a dry cold front will pass over the area late Friday bringing some clouds and maybe a dusting of snow. A decent storm system arrives early Sunday morning.
The snowpack generally has some very light snow on top of a variety of crusts and firm layers of snow. The crusts have been hard to map exactly. At lower elevations, rain and warm tempertures created crusts. At higher elevations, rime crusts exist but these crust form where winds blow supercooled water droplets onto surfaces.
Recent Avalanches
A skier in Big Cottonwood Canyon on Mt. Tuscarora yesterday triggered two very small slabs of wind drifted snow about 6 inches deep. These slides are a good heads up of future instabilities when snowfall this weekend builds a slab on top of the current snow surface which has been faceting and weakening. Photo - Chester
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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There may be a few shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow you could trigger, but that threat always exists to some degree and always worth looking for. Maintain good travel habits because these can save your life if something unexpected happens. Safe travel habits mean exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain and having someone watch them from a safe location.
With a LOW danger, it is reasonable to venture into more radical terrain, but always consider the consequences of an avalanche. Even very small avalanches can be deadly in certain terrain.
Additional Information
LOOKING AHEAD:
In simple terms, slab avalanches require a slab of snow resting on top of a weak layer. The weak layer is currently forming near the snow surface, and the slab may come with snowfall on Sunday.
The current snow surface has been faceting and weakening during warm sunny days and cold clear nights. Despite air temperatures in the single digits F, snow surface temperatures have likely dropped well below zero degrees F during nights with clear skies. Making matters worse, this weak snow rests on top of a crust on many slopes.
Regular pro observers Mark White and Cody Hughes found this weak snow yesterday in Dry Fork and Ferguson Canyon.
Areas of the Ogden mountains suffered more greatly with the rime/freezing rain crust. Travel conditions are greatly diminished, particularly on the east side of the Ogden valley.
Photo below of light snow (that will become the weak layer) on top of a crust near Mt Nebo but similar conditions have been found throughout the Wasatch with up to 6 inches of light snow on top of crusts.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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