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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Friday morning, February 1, 2019
The avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and elevations. Low danger implies "generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features." Wet loose sluffs will become active earlier today. Remember that even a small avalanche can have severe consequences in unforgiving terrain.
The danger will be on the rise over the next several days.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The report from last Friday's avalanche accident in the La Sals is finished and can be found HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends affected by this accident.
New blog post - I AM Dangerous (link). This is a conversation/collaboration with the writer Molly Absolon in the Tetons. Thanks Molly.
Weather and Snow
Hot of the press - The Week in Review
Calm before the storm.
Skies are mostly clear this morning but the warming mountain temperatures and backing winds are a portent of things to come. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s up high and in the teens in the basins and at the trailheads. The west-northwest winds slowly shifted to the southwest overnight and are blowing 10mph with gusts to 15. Skiing and riding conditions remain good with the weakening snow surfaces and surface hoar in the wind and sun sheltered terrain. We'll want the next 36 hours of sun, wind, clouds, and temperatures to decay, degrade, or demolish these developing surface weaknesses prior to the storm(s). As they say, today's snow surfaces may be tomorrow's buried weak layer.
Big Picture - a series of wet, warm and windy storms is approaching from the west/southwest and the avalanche danger will be in sharp lockstep with each pulse of the storm. It'll be time to step back in our terrain selection for a little while.
Recent Avalanches
None.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
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Description
Risk is inherent in mountain travel. (See blog post). Remember that even a small slide can be troubling if above extreme terrain. It's a good time to practice your companion rescue skills. A couple of things to be mindful of today:
  • The steep sunlit slopes should soften earlier with direct sun and daytime warming today. Small wet sluffs may be triggered in this terrain after the diurnal thaw.
  • As always, avoid being on or beneath the growing cornices along the ridgelines. Always use a spotter to help gauge the true ridgeline.
  • The various weaknesses in the snowpack have become dormant over the past days and weeks. This is not the case in the Uintas and probably the Provo mountains>south.
Additional Information
A powerful series of storms are on the doorstep. We'll see increasing clouds and southerly winds tonight ahead of a long and complicated storm...that lasts perhaps until late Wednesday. The early part of the storm moves in on a southwesterly flow tomorrow with perhaps an initial rain/snow line to 7500'. Strong southwest winds for much of the period. Snow should begin in earnest in the wee hours Sunday morning with continued significant snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. The flow looks to remain southwesterly to westerly until later in the storm. Temps drop to the low single digits Wed/Thurs when the coldest air arrives. Storm totals? Uncertain, but will throw out 2'+ by late Wednesday for areas favored by a southwest flow (Sundance, Park City, Brighton, Ogden. Possibly more. At this point - and the devil's details continue to change - the Ogden area mountains are likely to get crushed.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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