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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, December 17, 2024
Today, there is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on upper elevation northwest-north-east facing aspects for triggering a wind-drifted snow avalanche failing on buried facets. These avalanches could be 1'-2' deep and up to 100' wide running up to 300' vertical.
There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on upper elevation west-south-southeast aspects and mid elevation northwest-north-east facing terrain. The avalanche danger is LOW on all other aspects.
The biggest hazard for today is triggering a wind slab that fails on weak faceted snow. In upper elevation northwest-north-east facing terrain cautious route finding and conservative decision making is essential.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
This morning, under partly cloudy skies trailhead temperatures are in the low 30's °F and the ridgeline temperatures are in the mid 20's °F. Winds are blowing from the east at the lower elevations in the mid-teens MPH and from the west in the mid 30's gusting to the 40's MPH at the higher elevation weather stations. There was a trace of new snow reported overnight.
For today, look for partly cloudy skies with temperatures 32-36 °F and winds blowing from the west-northwest 10 gusting to 20 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 30 gusting to 45 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines. There is 1"-4" of snow forecast today.
Yesterday, there were reports of a damp snow surface in mid and lower elevation terrain. Within the last few days there have been reports of cracking and collapsing in the snowpack. These are signs that the snowpack is adjusting and if you see/hear these signs, or see recent avalanche activity then back off and find a lower angle slope to travel on.
Recent Avalanches
There were no backcountry avalanches reported from the Ogden Area Mountains yesterday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We now have two buried weak layers in our immature snowpack. One is a layer of facets located 1"-6" off the ground and the other is a buried surface weakness that formed during the early December high pressure and is just under the newest snow. The one near the ground is easy to see in snowpits and is the classic weak snow with strong snow over the top (photo below).
The harder to find surface weakness is now buried 4"-8" under the most recent new snow and wind. This weak snow will be spotty as it may have been destroyed by high winds and warm temperatures before it was buried by the most recent storm snow.
Photo (Pagnucco) showing weak faceted snow with a stiffer slab over the top on a north facing aspect at 8,500' in the mountains on the east side of the Ogden Valley.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Sustained strong winds have loaded snow in mid and upper elevation terrain, these recently formed wind slabs may be supportive enough to allow you to get further onto the slope before they break, making them all the more dangerous. Read more about wind loading HERE.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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