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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 23, 2025
Strong northwest winds have created a MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow on all aspects near treeline and above.
It's also still possible to trigger an avalanche 1-2 feet deep on a weak layer of buried facets. Fresh slabs of wind drifted snow will add stress to this weak layer. This problem is most pronounced on steep slopes that face NW-N-E right around treeline.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Gold Basin through Geyser Pass was groomed Saturday.
The beacon park is up and running. High pressure is a great time to work on your beacon skills.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N 15-20 G 30 Temp: 3° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 79%
Weather
After a several hour run in the 40-45 mph range yesterday morning, moderate to strong northwest winds have shifted to more northerly and have decreased a bit this morning. They'll continue to decrease today but temperatures will remain cold at around 15°F for a high at 10,000'. Tomorrow should be sunny and significantly warmer. Clouds move in Friday night ahead of a weak storm system that could bring us a chance for a few inches of much needed snow.
General Conditions
Our wind battered snowpack continues to take a beating and most surfaces are tired, textured, crusted, or hard. You might still be able to find some soft snow out there that was slightly enhanced by the 3 inches that fell over the weekend. Sheltered, northerly facing terrain below treeline will be the go to areas.
Shallow, stiff slabs of wind drifted snow are the primary avalanche problem, but we still have some concern over the weak layer that was buried on 12/25. This layer remains sensitive anywhere there is a cohesive slab on top. We have found this layer to be the most reactive on northerly aspects near treeline. Skiers and riders must continue to look for this potentially unstable slab/weak layer combination if you are getting into steep terrain.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong northwest winds have created stiff, fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow on all aspects near and above treeline. Winds from this direction tend to create some odd loading patterns. On northerly aspects, you are likely to find cross-loaded gullies and depressions. On southerly aspects, expect to find wind loading along leeward facing ridge lines, as well as on mid-slope terrain features. If the snow all of a sudden feels stiffer and more compact, you have found a fresh drift. Hollow sounds, collapsing, and shooting cracks are tell-tale signs of wind-drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It is still possible to trigger avalanches on a weak layer of faceted snow from the December dry spell, buried on 12/25, about a foot below the surface. This weak layer is widespread on slopes facing W-N-E and is most reactive near treeline. Recently formed slabs of wind drifted snow may increase the sensitivity of this layer. If you are considering steep terrain, especially near treeline, you need to dig down and look for the weak layer and determine whether or not there is a slab on top. Above treeline, the problem is very localized as a result of all the wind scouring we have experienced over the past month. This is a unique situation as the danger generally increases with elevation. For more on this, see Dave's thoughtful anlaysis below.
Additional Information
Forecaster's Corner: Slopes in the alpine are heavily scoured on all aspects and the slabs and weak layers are not well connected across this terrain. Areas that are not heavily scoured have a deep snowpack and strong snow. The average height of snow in these areas is 4.5 to almost 6 feet deep. This is a much different snowpack compared to lower elevations. The chances of triggering a deep avalanche failing on facets above treeline are low, but we continue to avoid steep, shallow, rocky areas to have the greatest margin of safety. Faceted layers still exist in this terrain, and future loading events can bring back a PWL problem. Be sure to read my latest observation for more information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.