AVALANCHE WARNING!! Tap for info

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 16, 2025
An isolated or MODERATE danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face W-N-E-SE where slabs of previously drifted snow overlay a buried persistent weak layer. This instability is most pronounced on steep northerly aspects near treeline. Human triggered avalanches a foot deep or more are possible in these areas.
A low-likelihood, high-consequence scenario for triggering a full-depth avalanche failing on a weak layer of facets near the ground exists in some areas. To manage this problem, avoid thin slope margins, steep convexities, and rocky, radical, northerly facing terrain.

Most other terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches involving thin slabs of wind-drifted snow may be possible on isolated terrain features.
Many slopes have thin cover and rocks, stumps, and logs are lurking just beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Trails have not been groomed since last Friday.
The beacon park is up and running. High pressure is a great time to work on your beacon skills.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 60" Depth at Gold Basin: 29"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 12-18 Temp: 29° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 95%
Weather
It's downright balmy up there this morning after several days with overnight lows in the single digits. Today will be sunny, warm, and beautiful with mostly light southerly winds and high temperatures in the low to mid 30's. Single digit temperatures will return tonight, and daytime highs tomorrow will be in the mid 20's. By Friday evening, an arctic low pressure system moves into the area bringing bitter cold temperatures and a slight chance for snow on Saturday.
General Conditions
Areas with soft snow continue to be found out there but it's pretty hit and miss. Generally speaking, sheltered, northerly aspects below treeline are where where you will have the best luck. Ridge top winds from the northeast picked up for a few hours yesterday, and Jake Etter observed plumes of wind transported snow off the highest summits. I don't anticipate much of a problem from this, but remain on the lookout for slabs of wind drifted snow if you're up in the high country. Our primary avalanche concern continues to be a layer of weak, faceted snow about a foot below the surface. It's easy to locate with a shovel, and you'll want to avoid steep slopes if you find a slab above this layer.
Plumes of wind transported snow off the summit of Mount Mellenthin. Jake Etter photo.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The primary avalanche concern is a weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the December dry spell and was buried on 12-25. This layer can be found about a foot below the surface on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. This weak layer is widespread, but the overlying slab is not, and it takes both to make an avalanche. The bullseye location for this instability is on northerly aspects near treeline. You can encounter this weak structure above treeline, however, strong northerly winds have created an erratic distribution of over-riding slabs, stripping and eroding snow off of many north and east aspects that are usually loaded. Cross-loading, however, is still a factor. This means you can be traveling through terrain that looks scoured and benign, and then suddenly find yourself on top of a hard slab with facets underneath. Suspect this scenario when the texture changes from rough and thin, to smooth, hard, and fat. Be alert to likely deposition zones such as gullies, depressions, and the leeward sides of terrain features. In these same areas, an outside chance lingers for avalanches to fail on weak facets near the ground. Avoiding extreme, rocky, slopes with a thin snowpack is the best way to mitigate this problem.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.