Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - March 17, 2018 - 6:39am
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The avalanche danger is HIGH in the upper elevation steep slopes that face northwest, north and east. Human triggered avalanches are almost certain on these slopes today. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended which means staying off of and out from underneath steep slopes.
avalanche warning

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM MST SUNDAY, MARCH 18.

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE MANTI SKYLINE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF UTAH INCLUDING THE FISH LAKE MOUNTAINS.

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA WILL BE HIGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. WEAK SNOW NEAR THE GROUND HAS BEEN OVERLOADED WITH NEW WIND BLOWN SNOW FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. LARGE AVALANCHES BREAKING TO THE GROUND ARE LIKELY. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH STEEP SLOPES. AVALANCHES CAN BE TRIGGERED FROM A DISTANCE EVEN FROM BELOW A STEEP SLOPE.
special announcement

We couldn't get out on the snow without the great support from Polaris, Ski Doo, and Arctic Cat as well as KTM and Timbersled. Our local dealers make it happen. Tri-City Performance, Weller Recreation, Northstar's Ultimate Outdoors, Big Pine and Morgan Valley Polaris. We use these machines to monitor the snowpack across the state of Utah. We also use these machines to teach life-saving classes.
current conditions

Moderate speed southeast wind stirred up the newer snow forming drifts in many locations. It is starting to change to a more southwest direction now. Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 20s. An interesting note on the snowpack is that below about 9000 feet, it is wet, saturated and punchy underneath the new snow. It is almost unsupportable on a machine, skis and definitely on foot. I found my track sinking deep into the wet snow in many areas below 9000 feet. When I stepped off the machine my boots would penetrate to the ground.
recent activity

No significant activity was reported from Friday. There was some minor wet snow avalanche activity on the sunny slopes. I received reports from snowmobilers up Ephraim Canyon that they were triggering some fresh wind slabs involving only the new snow.

I triggered a large avalanche while doing fieldwork on Thursday. I triggered it from a safe location on top of a ridge. It broke to the ground and was about 800 feet wide and over 5 feet deep at the deepest spot. DETAILS HERE.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The weak snow near the ground is likely to produce more avalanche activity especially with another round of new snow added on top of it tonight into Sunday. You just can't get onto the steep upper elevation slopes that face northwest, north and east and expect them not to avalanche. This problem is going to linger into next week after this storm passes. I expect to hear about avalanches breaking to the ground for the remainder of this winter.
weather

We'll see mostly cloudy skies today with high temperatures in the upper 20s and moderate speed southwest wind. Ridgetops will probably be a bit gusty. Snow showers are possible during the day without a whole lot of accumulation expected. Most of the snow will fall tonight into Sunday with 4 to 8 inches possible. Wind will shift around to the northwest tonight. Snow should linger into mid day on Sunday. Weather clears out for early in the week then another storm is shaping up for late in the week.
general announcements

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We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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