US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Snow, Weather and Avalanche Advisory

 Introduction:

Good Morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Saturday, March 5th, 2005 at 7:30 am.

Current Conditions:

Warm temperatures, partly cloudy skies and great riding conditions are expected on the Skyline this weekend! We haven’t received too much snow in the past week, only 2-4”. From 8,000’-10,000’ expect sun crusts on South-West aspects. On North aspects, you will find some nice consolidated powder conditions. Amazingly, there is some great consolidated powder up above 10,000’, you just have to get up there! The roads and parking lots are in great shape!

Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL: 49” of snow on the ground and 12 degrees at 5:00 a.m. High temperature yesterday reached 52 degrees, with six hours during the mid-day that hovered in the 40’s.

Miller Flat Trailhead: There is 52” of snow on the ground.

Seeley Creek SNOTEL: There is 44” of snow on the ground. The high temperature yesterday reached 30 degrees at this SNOTEL stake.

Mountain Weather:

The Skyline is in the middle of a Rex-Block weather pattern, a slow moving system that unfortunately “blocks” precipitation. It looks like we have another week of nice spring-like weather.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High temperature at 8,000’ will be near 40 degrees.

Saturday night: Mostly clear. Low temperature at 8,000’ will be near 20 degrees.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High temperature at 8,000’ will be in the upper 30’s.

Avalanche Conditions:

Yesterday’s observations showed no new natural or human triggered avalanches. Warm temperatures and lack of any significant new snow in the past week has allowed the snow to start to settle out and not have any new stress applied to it, besides snowmobiles and skiers. With the warm temperatures, there has been some point releases on south through west aspects. These pin-wheels or cinnamon rolls are signs of instability, showing that the surface snow is losing its cohesion. If you start seeing these, it is a good time to leave that aspect and recreate somewhere else. If the temperatures start to rapidly rise, the chance for wet snow avalanches will increase on these aspects. The Bottom Line is an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on these South through West aspects if and when there is warm temperatures and direct solar radiation on these slopes. This will usually occur in the early afternoon. For the rest of the Skyline, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at LOW. Avalanches can still occur when the avlanche danger is LOW, it just means that they are unlikely to happen and will occur in isolated spots. Remember to expose only one person to the slope at a time, start in safe zones and practice with your avalanche transceivers!