Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Wednesday - February 14, 2018 - 7:20am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a new wind drift on steep upper elevation slopes. Deeper avalanches stepping into old snow are possible in isolated steep terrain with poor snow structure - most likely on a steep, north or northeast facing slope at the upper elevations.
special announcement

Maybe worth the drive...At 6PM on February 17 at Alpine Distilling in Park City, join a presentation on the UAC's Avalanche Awareness Know Before You Go Program then learn about how we perceive aroma and taste through whiskey while seeing how Alpine Distilling crafts local, award winning spirits. The evening will feature a specialty cocktail made with Alpine Distilling's Persistent (Weak Layer) Vodka and include a raffle for a backcountry kit (beacon, shovel, and probe) donated by Backcountry.com. Contact [email protected] for details and reservations.

current conditions

Sadly, today is not yesterday. Under increasingly cloudy skies, the southwesterly winds picked up and are averaging in the 20s and gusting in the 30s and 40s at the mid elevations of the Provo area mountains. Temperatures are in the 20s to low 30s at the mid and low elevations. A lack of low and mid elevation snow makes travel difficult.
recent activity

No avalanche activity reported from the backcountry yesterday, and no recent observations from the Provo area mountains.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Today’s steady winds will result in a few sensitive, fresh wind drifts at the upper elevations. Wind drifts, known as wind slabs, often look smooth and rounded, and when you find one, they can be cracky, denser and deeper than the surrounding snow. In some spots, the winds are also getting down into the mid elevations, so look for drifts along both mid and upper elevation ridgelines and cross-loaded along gully walls, mid slope break overs and sub ridges. Avoid any wind drifts on steep slopes.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

We are incrementally loading our buried faceted weak layers with a series of small storms and wind events. With today’s southwesterly winds drifting the snow, the buried faceted weak layers in the upper snowpack on northwesterly through easterly facing slopes may be getting just a bit tweaky. A triggered wind drift stepping down to an upper (the thin rime crust) or mid pack weak layer is most likely way to trigger a deeper slide. Any cracking or collapsing is a bulls eye clue to instability.

There is a lot of variability in the snowpack strength and depth. Slopes with a shallower snowpack, especially those that are rocky, tend to have weaker snow. Spatial variabitlity is what we call the differences from one slope to another and could make for tricky conditions if we get the forecast snow and wind.

See a short discussion in this video.
weather

Northern Utah will be under a moderate to strong southwesterly flow today ahead of a storm. Increasing clouds today, with light snow starting late this afternoon. Winds will remain brisk – 20 to 30 mph averages at the mid and upper elevations, with gusts in the 50s along the highest peaks. Temperatures will warm into the 30s at the mid elevations, and 20s at the higher elevations. Snow tonight, with snow showers continuing into tomorrow afternoon. 2 to 5” of snow is possible by Thursday afternoon.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.