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Thursday, September 13; 6:00-10:00 PM; Black Diamond Parking Lot
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Avalanche Advisory
| Advisory: Provo Area Mountains | Issued by Drew Hardesty for Thursday - February 9, 2017 - 7:35am |
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bottom line The danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE for wet loose and possibly wet slab avalanches on all aspects at the low to mid elevations. Even damp rollerballs and wet sluffs may be expected with provocation on all but the highest northerly elevations due to light rain and rapid warming. These will be unusual conditions over the next 48+ hours. Great uncertainty with these conditions warrants great caution. Cornice-fall and roof avalanches are all inherently dangerous...and all are quite possible today. Ice climbing is not recommended.
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current conditions Maritime. The coastal ranges called, they want their weather back. Overnight lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s! Precipitation continues to fall with a rain/snow line to almost 9500'. So far many areas have picked up .22" of rain. At least the southwesterly winds are blowing 30mph with gusts to 45. Snow surface conditions were described as "slide-for-life" at the mid and low elevations yesterday but these crusts will soften with heating and rain. https://youtu.be/o2d_Og5FgZ0 |
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recent activity Natural wet sluffing and wet slabs noted in saturated, thinner snowpack areas. Pic: Mark Staples . Cornice fall also significant on some ridgelines in the SLC mountains; these prodded 1-2' deep wind slab avalanches below.
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Avalanche Problem 1
| type | aspect/elevation | characteristics |
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LIKELIHOOD
 LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
 LARGE
SMALL
TREND
 INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
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description
Cloud cover, a poor overnight refreeze, and light rain will keep wet loose and wet slab avalanches on the forefront. Furthermore, today's mountain temperatures will rise to the mid 40s F at 95000' by the afternoon; therefore even snow on all but the highest northerly elevations will start to rollerball and perhaps produce some wet sluffs with provocation in steep terrain. Unsupportable wet snow can be avalanche-prone and is a key sign to move to lower angle terrain. ROOF AVALANCHES continue to be a significant concern. Avoid being in the "runout zones". |
Avalanche Problem 2
| type | aspect/elevation | characteristics |
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LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
 LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
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description
These monster cornices continue to calve upon approach, often with little warning. They deserve a great deal of respect and caution. We've suffered a few tragic fatalities over the years with unsuspecting people trap-dooring through a cornice and killed by trauma on the ride down. Cornice-fall may still be able to crow-bar out a few lingering wind slabs below.
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weather We'll have overcast skies and light rain that may be a bit more pronounced in Ogden and areas north. Winds will blow 30-40mph from the west southwest. Mountain temperatures will reach into the low 40s at 10,000'. 8000' temps will reach the low 50s. The next "atmospheric river" event kicks in overnight into Friday with a cold front following for overnight Friday into Saturday. The rain-snow line may initially hit 9500', though 9000' seems more likely. Expected snow totals are 10-18" through later Saturday. |
general announcements
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