Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Brett Kobernik

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

There is still space in next weeks Women's Advanced Avalanche Class - groups are divided by travel skill levels, so all abilities are welcome. Learn how and where to find safe terrain in this year's uncertain snow pack. For more information click HERE.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE for triggering deep slab avalanches in mid and upper elevation west through north through east southeast facing slopes that aren’t much steeper then 30 degrees. I continue to avoid my favorite terrain which I just described. Instead, I’m going to pick up a pair of these and start doing a whole different type of touring then I usually do. My sled stays in the meadows as well.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Clouds are moving in and we have mild temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and even a few low 30s with light west southwest winds. The snow surface is settled powder with some wind effect in higher terrain and is quite set up because of warm temps at lower elevations and more sunny aspects.

RECENT ACTIVITY

There was a very close call in Days Fork on Sunday where a skier triggered an avalanche and was caught and carried to the bottom ending up uninjured and able to boot hike out after losing his gear. DETAILS The avalanche took out another parties tracks and their climbing track from a bit earlier in the day. This earlier group may never realize how much they teased death as well. Another skier triggered avalanche was reported from westerly facing 9990 above Desolation which was 100 feet wide and ran about 400 feet, no one caught. Many observations continue to include collapsing of the snowpack.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Deep slab avalanches failing on weak preexisting snow remain the number one threat out there today. It’s more difficult to judge this now as things are not totally obvious. You may travel the entire day without experiencing a collapse. You may beat on your snow pit tests until your hand is bruised with no results. I wouldn’t hold stock in either of these poor investments. Concentrate on structure. Until we build a strong foundation under our “bridge” (slab) all bets are off.

Drew put it well yesterday: ”High level backcountry experts are choosing terrain that A-has already avalanched with little likelihood of repeating, B-holds little to no weak faceted snow, or C-has a modest enough slope angle that it will not slide (nor is it connected to steeper terrain above). Or D-all of the above.”

I’d add if you are not as experienced, you should avoid any steep slope. Be honest with yourself and only attempt steeper terrain if you can positively identify everything in Drew’s statement.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

There may be some minor instability near the surface from recent and upcoming wind drifted snow. Keep an eye on all crossloaded terrain features as well as the predominant aspects you'd expect these on.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We settle into a westerly flow starting today which will increase wind speeds a bit from time to time and perhaps produce a little snowfall without much more then a few inches expected. More northern Utah appears to have a better chance with these flurries. Temperatures will remain fairly warm today in the low 30s at 8000 feet and a bit cooler along the ridges. West winds may bump up a bit today.

Check in with our mid day mountain weather forecast (Current Conditions->Mountain Weather->Salt Lake) which is derived from model data, National Weather Service forecasters and our own gut instincts.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone http://utahavalanchecenter.org/twitter)

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.