Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Pockets of MODERATE (L2) danger exist for triggering hard wind driftsandfor triggering isolated persistent hard slabs up to 4’ deep on steep north to east facing terrain at the mid and upper elevations. Wet activity will be more pronounced on the northwest, north, and northeast facing slopes at the lower elevations.

The danger will ramp up in a hurry overnight with heavy snowfall and gusty winds. With three storms on the way through next week, I'd expect some avalanches to step down into older, weaker snow. Areas outside of the Tri-canyons will certainly warrant extra caution.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Skies are partly cloudy. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations are in the upper 30s and 40s and did not get a good refreeze. The winds are from the south and southwest blowing 35-40mph with gusts in the 60s. Even the more sheltered anemometers suffer gusts into the 40s. Be a good day to tune the sled or wax the board(s).

RECENT ACTIVITY

The only activity reported was a small 20' wide pocket up in the Powder Mountain periphery....likely triggered from above by cornice fall.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 10 hours.

Stiff and stubborn hard slabscontinue to be a concern for today. With even the more sheltered anemometers now showing gusts into the 40s, give some thought to drifting in your favorite powder stashes that are 'always' good. With the searing winds, these drifts will be well off the ridgelines with little regard to aspect due to terrain flow and channeling.

Most of these are welded in, but approach smooth rounded pillows of snow with extra caution. Cracking will give some idea of localized drifting, but the hard drifts may provide little clue prior to release. These can feel hollow and slippery smooth and are predominantly triggered from below or the along the periphery of the tapering hard lens of snow.

Continue to give cornices a wide berth - from Sunday - Second, there is a great helmet cam video of a snowmobiler in the Logan area mountains near Tony Grove that walked up to the edge of a cornice... and went over with the box-car. It happens to the best of us, believe me.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 10 hours.

The mid and low elevations are suffering from the heat. With punchy, isothermal conditions reported, avoid being in or above terrain traps during the heat of the day, particularly in the lower elevation sheltered northerly terrain.

THREAT #3
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Persistent slabs are called persistent for a reason. Sunday’s snowmobile triggered hard slab and corroborating snow stability tests indicate that the weaknesses adjacent to the MLK rain crust remain 1-difficult to trigger, 2- isolated in distribution, 3- potentially deadly. They’re more likely to be triggered on steep north to east facing terrain along the periphery of the Tri-Canyons. Previous tracks, as always, offer little clue to stability for hard slabs.

Weak faceted snow from the first few days of the month, now buried 8-20", continues to show its cards in consistent snow profiles and stability tests. We'll look to keep tabs on how this adjusts to the new loads over the next week or so as well.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Look for increasing clouds today and perhaps some light snowfall by the afternoon. Winds will ramp up to 45-55mph with gusts to 80mph. Temps will be in the upper 20s at 10k and the upper 30s at 8k.

We're just on the edge of a full scale weather pattern change for Utah - about time - and the first in a series of storms arrives tonight. I expect frontal passage some time roughly 9-11pm working north to south along I-15. I'd expect most areas to see heavy snowfall during and just after the cold front, with snow lingering in areas favored by a west to northwest flow. Most areas are likely to see 6-10" with the Cottonwoods perhaps 10-14". We get a bit of a break Thursday into Friday with the next storm arriving Friday into Saturday...and again Monday night through Thursday.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

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UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.