Introduction: Good
morning! This is Evan Stevens with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Monday, February 8th,
2005 at 8:30 am. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages,
Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of
the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This
advisory will expire in 24 hours.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
The weather is clearing to greet us with 9 to 16 inches of new
snow, a thankfully refreshing coating to the mountains. You can expect to find powder skiing and
riding on wind sheltered slopes and in the trees at all elevations and aspects,
with snow depths increasing with altitude.
As you poke out of the trees and wind shadows the snow will be wind
effected, so choose your slopes wisely for some enjoyable conditions. The road was plowed by noon yesterday, but
another half a foot of snow has fallen since then-4WD and chains are
recommended.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 43” at the
SNOTEL site with a temperature of 15 degrees at 7:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): some riming from
early on in the storm has knocked out the station-yesterday observed winds were
from the S to SW at around 15-25mph.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 75” to 85” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
Winds
should stay light and temperatures cool as the day clears out-great day to be
in the hills!
Today:
A 50 percent chance
of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West southwest wind
between 5 and 10 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values between
-2 and -7. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 29. Wind chill values
between -7 and 3. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Avalanche Conditions:
The storm is clearing and the last 36 hours have brought us
on average at least a foot of new snow.
The weather came in warm and gradually cooled off, with temperatures
decreasing for the entire 36 hour period.
Winds have also decrease since last night, but not before they created
abundant shallow soft slabs on lee and cross-loaded slopes. Yesterday afternoon, my partner and I
observed abundant cracking of the new snow on cross-loaded steep NW aspects of
about 6-10” deep. Since then another 6
inches of new snow has fallen with strong SW winds, so expect to find slabs of
1 to 1.5 feet on these lee and cross-loaded slopes today. In most places I suspect that the new snow
amounts were not deep enough to cause an extensive natural cycle-maybe a small
one last night, but today is probably a day where the weight of a backcountry
traveler will trigger slides in the new snow.
Remember that many places had some significant surface hoar and facets
on the snow surface before this storm, and it is now acting as a weak layer for
slides to fail on. The last clue for
travelers today is that the last few inches of snow came in light and calm and
may be hiding the wind effected surface texture of slabby snow out there, so
don’t be fooled-poke around in the snow
and look for test slopes. What
does this all boil down to? A CONSIDERABLE avalanche
danger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees on lee and cross-loaded slopes and
gullies. Look for the most loading on
NW-N-NE aspects. All other slopes less
than about 35 degrees have a MODERATE to LOW
danger. Remember a CONSIDERABLE danger
means human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches are
possible.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Plenty
of new snow means some fitness enhancing trailbreaking across the range today.